All Outcomes
32 candidates1Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
49.5%
2Flávio Bolsonaro
34.3%
3Renan Santos
5.5%
4Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior
3.4%
5Tarcisio de Freitas
2.7%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
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View Full Flow DashboardYES: 50% | NO: 51%
$21.9M total volume
Neutral - balanced flow
Oct 4, 2026
This political prediction market reflects real-money positions from traders worldwide. Unlike traditional polls that can suffer from sampling bias, prediction markets aggregate diverse opinions weighted by conviction—traders put real money behind their forecasts. The current 50% probability has been shaped by $21.9M in trading activity.
High Volume: With $21.9M traded, this is one of the most actively traded markets. Higher volume typically means more accurate price discovery.
This is a multi-outcome market with 32 possible outcomes. Each outcome has its own YES/NO market where you can bet on whether that specific candidate/option will win.
Example: If you think Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva will win, you can buy YES shares at 49.5¢. If correct, you receive $1.00—a potential 102% return.
Alternatively, if you believe a leading candidate is overvalued, you can buy NO shares on their market to profit if they don't win.