All Outcomes
45 candidates1Eric Swalwell
58.5%
2Matt Mahan
18.5%
3Katie Porter
8.8%
4Steve Hilton
8.6%
5Tom Steyer
8.0%
This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
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View Full Flow DashboardYES: 59% | NO: 42%
$357,646 total volume
Neutral - balanced flow
Nov 3, 2026
This political prediction market reflects real-money positions from traders worldwide. Unlike traditional polls that can suffer from sampling bias, prediction markets aggregate diverse opinions weighted by conviction—traders put real money behind their forecasts. The current 59% probability has been shaped by $357,646 in trading activity.
This is a multi-outcome market with 45 possible outcomes. Each outcome has its own YES/NO market where you can bet on whether that specific candidate/option will win.
Example: If you think Eric Swalwell will win, you can buy YES shares at 58.5¢. If correct, you receive $1.00—a potential 71% return.
Alternatively, if you believe a leading candidate is overvalued, you can buy NO shares on their market to profit if they don't win.