All Outcomes
45 candidates1Xavier
96.0%
2Steve Hilton
3.9%
3Tom Steyer
0.1%
4Rick Caruso
0.1%
5Alex Padilla
0.1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
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View Full Flow DashboardYES: 96% | NO: 4%
$41.7M total volume
Neutral - balanced flow
Nov 4, 2026
This political prediction market reflects real-money positions from traders worldwide. Unlike traditional polls that can suffer from sampling bias, prediction markets aggregate diverse opinions weighted by conviction—traders put real money behind their forecasts. The current 96% probability has been shaped by $41.7M in trading activity.
High Volume: With $41.7M traded, this is one of the most actively traded markets. Higher volume typically means more accurate price discovery.
This is a multi-outcome market with 45 possible outcomes. Each outcome has its own YES/NO market where you can bet on whether that specific candidate/option will win.
Example: If you think Xavier will win, you can buy YES shares at 96.0¢. If correct, you receive $1.00—a potential 4% return.
Alternatively, if you believe a leading candidate is overvalued, you can buy NO shares on their market to profit if they don't win.