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© 2026 Insider Trade Flow. Not financial advice. All data sourced from public SEC filings, 13F reports, and Polymarket.
Polymarket/California Midterm

California Governor Election Winner

This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.

Ends Nov 3, 2026California Midterm

All Outcomes

45 candidates
1Xavier
95.0%
2Steve Hilton
4.8%
3Tom Steyer
0.2%
4Rick Caruso
0.1%
5Alex Padilla
0.1%
6Katie Porter
0.1%
7Antonio Villaraigosa
0.1%
8Stephen Cloobeck
0.1%
9Butch Ware
0.1%
10Betty Yee
0.1%
11Toni Atkins
0.1%
12Kyle Langford
0.1%
13Chad Bianco
0.1%
14Eleni Kounalakis
0.1%
15Daniel Mercuri
0.1%
16Tony Thurmond
0.1%
17Michael Younger
0.1%
18Leo Zacky
0.1%
19Nicole Shanahan
0.1%
20Eric Swalwell
0.1%
21Kamala Harris
0.1%
22Matt Mahan
0.1%
23Elaine Culotti
0.1%
Showing top 30 of 45 candidates
Volume
$40.8M
Liquidity
$6.2M
24h Trades
0
Whale Trades
0

24h Flow Analysis

Buy Flow: $0Sell Flow: $0
Flow Imbalance0.0%
⚖️ Neutral flow - balanced buying and selling

Track This Market

Get real-time flow alerts for whale trades and price movements.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds?

YES: 95% | NO: 5%

How much volume has been traded?

$40.8M total volume

What is the market sentiment?

Neutral - balanced flow

When does this market end?

Nov 3, 2026

About This Market

This political prediction market reflects real-money positions from traders worldwide. Unlike traditional polls that can suffer from sampling bias, prediction markets aggregate diverse opinions weighted by conviction—traders put real money behind their forecasts. The current 95% probability has been shaped by $40.8M in trading activity.

What's Driving the Odds

High Volume: With $40.8M traded, this is one of the most actively traded markets. Higher volume typically means more accurate price discovery.

How to Trade This Market

This is a multi-outcome market with 45 possible outcomes. Each outcome has its own YES/NO market where you can bet on whether that specific candidate/option will win.

Example: If you think Xavier will win, you can buy YES shares at 95.0¢. If correct, you receive $1.00—a potential 5% return.

Alternatively, if you believe a leading candidate is overvalued, you can buy NO shares on their market to profit if they don't win.