All Outcomes
7 candidates1Claude 5
37.5%
2Claude 5
8.8%
3Claude 5
3.1%
4Claude 5
0.4%
Volume
$2.5M
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's Claude 5 model is made available to the general public by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," Claude 5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public. Claude 5 refers to a product explicitly named Claude 5 (e.g. Claude 5.0 would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to Claude 4, similar to the progression from Claude 2 to Claude 3. Products labeled as Claude 4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
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View Full Flow DashboardYES: 38% | NO: 63%
$2.5M total volume
Neutral - balanced flow
Apr 30, 2026
Technology prediction markets track industry developments and product launches. This market has $2.5M in trading volume with $130,206 in liquidity. The 38% probability reflects trader expectations based on available information.
High Volume: With $2.5M traded, this is one of the most actively traded markets. Higher volume typically means more accurate price discovery.
This is a multi-outcome market with 7 possible outcomes. Each outcome has its own YES/NO market where you can bet on whether that specific candidate/option will win.
Example: If you think Claude 5 will win, you can buy YES shares at 37.5¢. If correct, you receive $1.00—a potential 167% return.
Alternatively, if you believe a leading candidate is overvalued, you can buy NO shares on their market to profit if they don't win.