YES
50.0%
$0.50 per share
NO
100.0%
$1.00 per share
Volume
$1.3M
Liquidity
$0
24h Trades
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from February 10 12:00 PM ET to February 17, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Get real-time flow alerts for whale trades and price movements.
View Full Flow DashboardYES: 50% | NO: 100%
$1.3M total volume
Neutral - balanced flow
Feb 17, 2026
This prediction market aggregates information from an estimated 25,011 trades. The current price of 50¢ implies a 50% probability of this outcome occurring. Trading activity has been primarily retail-sized.
High Volume: With $1.3M traded, this is one of the most actively traded markets. Higher volume typically means more accurate price discovery.
Buy YES if you believe this will happen. At the current price of $0.50, you'd receive $1.00 if correct—a potential 100% return.
Buy NO if you believe it won't happen. At $1.00, you'd receive $1.00 if correct—a potential 0% return.
Share prices reflect the market's probability estimate. If you think the true probability differs from 50%, there may be a trading opportunity.