All Outcomes
6 candidates1global temperature increase by
48.5%
2global temperature increase by
23.6%
3global temperature increase by
14.5%
4global temperature increase by less than 1.05ºC in
4.3%
5global temperature increase by
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for February 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for February 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for February 2026 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Feb" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for February 2026 is provided by NASA by April 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Get real-time flow alerts for whale trades and price movements.
View Full Flow DashboardYES: 49% | NO: 52%
$449,286 total volume
Neutral - balanced flow
Mar 10, 2026
This prediction market aggregates information from an estimated 8,985 trades. The current price of 49¢ implies a 49% probability of this outcome occurring. Trading activity has been primarily retail-sized.
Approaching Resolution: With 12 days until resolution, traders are watching closely for any news that could shift the odds.
This is a multi-outcome market with 6 possible outcomes. Each outcome has its own YES/NO market where you can bet on whether that specific candidate/option will win.
Example: If you think global temperature increase by will win, you can buy YES shares at 48.5¢. If correct, you receive $1.00—a potential 106% return.
Alternatively, if you believe a leading candidate is overvalued, you can buy NO shares on their market to profit if they don't win.