All Outcomes
9 candidates1there
59.5%
2there
18.0%
3there
13.5%
4there
4.8%
5there
2.5%
6
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
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View Full Flow DashboardYES: 60% | NO: 41%
$1.3M total volume
Neutral - balanced flow
Jun 30, 2026
This prediction market aggregates information from an estimated 25,932 trades. The current price of 60¢ implies a 60% probability of this outcome occurring. Trading activity has been primarily retail-sized.
High Volume: With $1.3M traded, this is one of the most actively traded markets. Higher volume typically means more accurate price discovery.
This is a multi-outcome market with 9 possible outcomes. Each outcome has its own YES/NO market where you can bet on whether that specific candidate/option will win.
Example: If you think there will win, you can buy YES shares at 59.5¢. If correct, you receive $1.00—a potential 68% return.
Alternatively, if you believe a leading candidate is overvalued, you can buy NO shares on their market to profit if they don't win.