All Outcomes
13 candidates1no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026
77.5%
21 Fed rate cut happen in 2026
15.5%
32 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026
4.5%
43 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026
1.9%
512 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
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View Full Flow DashboardYES: 78% | NO: 22%
$41.7M total volume
Neutral - balanced flow
Dec 31, 2026
This prediction market aggregates information from an estimated 834,635 trades. The current price of 78¢ implies a 78% probability of this outcome occurring. Trading activity has been primarily retail-sized.
High Volume: With $41.7M traded, this is one of the most actively traded markets. Higher volume typically means more accurate price discovery.
This is a multi-outcome market with 13 possible outcomes. Each outcome has its own YES/NO market where you can bet on whether that specific candidate/option will win.
Example: If you think no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026 will win, you can buy YES shares at 77.5¢. If correct, you receive $1.00—a potential 29% return.
Alternatively, if you believe a leading candidate is overvalued, you can buy NO shares on their market to profit if they don't win.