This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome. The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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View Full Flow DashboardYES: 60% | NO: 40%
$436,436 total volume
Neutral - balanced flow
Dec 31, 2026
Technology prediction markets track industry developments and product launches. This market has $436,436 in trading volume with $23,161 in liquidity. The 60% probability reflects trader expectations based on available information.
This is a multi-outcome market with 8 possible outcomes. Each outcome has its own YES/NO market where you can bet on whether that specific candidate/option will win.
Example: If you think less than 5 SpaceX Starship launches successfully will win, you can buy YES shares at 60.0¢. If correct, you receive $1.00—a potential 67% return.
Alternatively, if you believe a leading candidate is overvalued, you can buy NO shares on their market to profit if they don't win.