This market will resolve to "Yes" if an Iran-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Israel is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any Iranian operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other Iranian government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land in Israeli territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. If no qualifying strike is confirmed by the resolution date this market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
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View Full Flow DashboardYES: 5% | NO: 95%
$579,796 total volume
Neutral - balanced flow
Feb 28, 2026
This prediction market aggregates information from an estimated 11,595 trades. The current price of 5¢ implies a 5% probability of this outcome occurring. Trading activity has been primarily retail-sized.
Resolution Soon: This market ends in 2 days. Odds often become more volatile as resolution approaches when new information emerges.
Buy YES if you believe this will happen. At the current price of $0.05, you'd receive $1.00 if correct—a potential 2074% return.
Buy NO if you believe it won't happen. At $0.95, you'd receive $1.00 if correct—a potential 5% return.
Share prices reflect the market's probability estimate. If you think the true probability differs from 5%, there may be a trading opportunity.