This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Yemeni soil or any official Yemen embassy or consulate by the listed date, 11:59 PM Israeli local time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Yemen ground territory or any official Yemen embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Yemen soil is hit by an Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Yemen territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
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View Full Flow DashboardYES: 53% | NO: 48%
$368,001 total volume
Neutral - balanced flow
Jun 30, 2026
This prediction market aggregates information from an estimated 7,360 trades. The current price of 53¢ implies a 53% probability of this outcome occurring. Trading activity has been primarily retail-sized.
This is a multi-outcome market with 2 possible outcomes. Each outcome has its own YES/NO market where you can bet on whether that specific candidate/option will win.
Example: If you think Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026 will win, you can buy YES shares at 52.5¢. If correct, you receive $1.00—a potential 90% return.
Alternatively, if you believe a leading candidate is overvalued, you can buy NO shares on their market to profit if they don't win.