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© 2026 Insider Trade Flow. Not financial advice. All data sourced from public SEC filings, 13F reports, and Polymarket.
Polymarket/SPX

S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 3?

This market will resolve to "Up" if the official S&P 500 Index open price for S&P 500 (SPX) on March 3 is higher than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the official S&P 500 Index open price for S&P 500 (SPX) on March 3 is lower than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Note that all figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. If SPX does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. If either of the relevant days are shortened (for example, due to a market holiday schedule), the official open/close price published by S&P 500 Index for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If the previous trading day has no official closing price (for example, due to a trading halt into the market close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is the Wall Street Journal, specifically the Open/Close values published by the WSJ under "Historical Prices". US: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks EMEA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/emea ASIA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/asia

Ends Mar 3, 2026SPXResolved:
YES
50.0%
$0.50 per share
NO
100.0%
$1.00 per share
Volume
$580,132
Liquidity
$0
24h Trades
0
Whale Trades
0

24h Flow Analysis

Buy Flow: $0Sell Flow: $0
Flow Imbalance0.0%
⚖️ Neutral flow - balanced buying and selling

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Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds?

YES: 50% | NO: 100%

How much volume has been traded?

$580,132 total volume

What is the market sentiment?

Neutral - balanced flow

When does this market end?

Mar 3, 2026

About This Market

This prediction market aggregates information from an estimated 11,602 trades. The current price of 50¢ implies a 50% probability of this outcome occurring. Trading activity has been primarily retail-sized.

What's Driving the Odds

How to Trade This Market

Buy YES if you believe this will happen. At the current price of $0.50, you'd receive $1.00 if correct—a potential 100% return.

Buy NO if you believe it won't happen. At $1.00, you'd receive $1.00 if correct—a potential 0% return.

Share prices reflect the market's probability estimate. If you think the true probability differs from 50%, there may be a trading opportunity.