YES
4.4%
$0.04 per share
NO
95.6%
$0.96 per share
Volume
$3.2M
Liquidity
$96,710
24h Trades
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between the time of this market's creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
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View Full Flow DashboardYES: 4% | NO: 96%
$3.2M total volume
Neutral - balanced flow
Jan 31, 2026
This prediction market aggregates information from an estimated 63,085 trades. The current price of 4¢ implies a 4% probability of this outcome occurring. Trading activity has been primarily retail-sized.
High Volume: With $3.2M traded, this is one of the most actively traded markets. Higher volume typically means more accurate price discovery.
Buy YES if you believe this will happen. At the current price of $0.04, you'd receive $1.00 if correct—a potential 2173% return.
Buy NO if you believe it won't happen. At $0.96, you'd receive $1.00 if correct—a potential 5% return.
Share prices reflect the market's probability estimate. If you think the true probability differs from 4%, there may be a trading opportunity.