All Outcomes
7 candidates1US x Iran ceasefire by June 30
69.5%
2US x Iran ceasefire by May 31
64.0%
3US x Iran ceasefire by April 30
51.5%
4US x Iran ceasefire by March 31
34.5%
5US x Iran ceasefire by March 15
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another. If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
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View Full Flow DashboardYES: 70% | NO: 31%
$10.4M total volume
Neutral - balanced flow
Invalid Date
This prediction market aggregates information from an estimated 208,458 trades. The current price of 70¢ implies a 70% probability of this outcome occurring. Trading activity has been primarily retail-sized.
High Volume: With $10.4M traded, this is one of the most actively traded markets. Higher volume typically means more accurate price discovery.
This is a multi-outcome market with 7 possible outcomes. Each outcome has its own YES/NO market where you can bet on whether that specific candidate/option will win.
Example: If you think US x Iran ceasefire by June 30 will win, you can buy YES shares at 69.5¢. If correct, you receive $1.00—a potential 44% return.
Alternatively, if you believe a leading candidate is overvalued, you can buy NO shares on their market to profit if they don't win.