This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on February 28, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market. If two models are tied for the best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No") The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
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View Full Flow DashboardYES: 95% | NO: 5%
$684,411 total volume
Neutral - balanced flow
Feb 28, 2026
Technology prediction markets track industry developments and product launches. This market has $684,411 in trading volume with $131,425 in liquidity. The 95% probability reflects trader expectations based on available information.
Resolution Soon: This market ends in 2 days. Odds often become more volatile as resolution approaches when new information emerges.
This is a multi-outcome market with 24 possible outcomes. Each outcome has its own YES/NO market where you can bet on whether that specific candidate/option will win.
Example: If you think Anthropic will win, you can buy YES shares at 95.5¢. If correct, you receive $1.00—a potential 5% return.
Alternatively, if you believe a leading candidate is overvalued, you can buy NO shares on their market to profit if they don't win.