This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on February 28, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
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View Full Flow DashboardYES: 96% | NO: 4%
$907,998 total volume
Neutral - balanced flow
Feb 28, 2026
Technology prediction markets track industry developments and product launches. This market has $907,998 in trading volume with $118,077 in liquidity. The 96% probability reflects trader expectations based on available information.
Resolution Soon: This market ends in 2 days. Odds often become more volatile as resolution approaches when new information emerges.
This is a multi-outcome market with 25 possible outcomes. Each outcome has its own YES/NO market where you can bet on whether that specific candidate/option will win.
Example: If you think Anthropic will win, you can buy YES shares at 95.8¢. If correct, you receive $1.00—a potential 4% return.
Alternatively, if you believe a leading candidate is overvalued, you can buy NO shares on their market to profit if they don't win.