All Outcomes
5 candidates1Hamas agree to disarm by June 30
27.5%
2Hamas agree to disarm by March 31
8.0%
3Hamas agree to disarm by February 28
2.0%
Volume
$1.5M
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only credible announcements, for example by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas, will qualify. For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip. Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process. Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered. Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hamas leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.
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View Full Flow DashboardYES: 28% | NO: 73%
$1.5M total volume
Neutral - balanced flow
Jun 30, 2026
This prediction market aggregates information from an estimated 30,609 trades. The current price of 28¢ implies a 28% probability of this outcome occurring. Trading activity has been primarily retail-sized.
High Volume: With $1.5M traded, this is one of the most actively traded markets. Higher volume typically means more accurate price discovery.
This is a multi-outcome market with 5 possible outcomes. Each outcome has its own YES/NO market where you can bet on whether that specific candidate/option will win.
Example: If you think Hamas agree to disarm by June 30 will win, you can buy YES shares at 27.5¢. If correct, you receive $1.00—a potential 264% return.
Alternatively, if you believe a leading candidate is overvalued, you can buy NO shares on their market to profit if they don't win.