YES
65.8%
$0.66 per share
NO
34.3%
$0.34 per share
Volume
$111,250
Liquidity
$9,970
24h Trades
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel or the United States carry out a kinetic military strike against any Iranian facility used for the development, enrichment, storage, or processing of nuclear material or technology, including reactors, enrichment facilities, uranium mines, and research centers located on Iranian soil, between market creation and February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by US Israeli operatives on the ground. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. Israeli missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets will not be considered for this market. The resolution source for this market is official statements from the US, Israeli, and Iranian governments, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used. Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
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View Full Flow DashboardYES: 66% | NO: 34%
$111,250 total volume
Neutral - balanced flow
Feb 28, 2026
This prediction market aggregates information from an estimated 2,224 trades. The current price of 66¢ implies a 66% probability of this outcome occurring. Trading activity has been primarily retail-sized.
Buy YES if you believe this will happen. At the current price of $0.66, you'd receive $1.00 if correct—a potential 52% return.
Buy NO if you believe it won't happen. At $0.34, you'd receive $1.00 if correct—a potential 192% return.
Share prices reflect the market's probability estimate. If you think the true probability differs from 66%, there may be a trading opportunity.