YES
36.5%
$0.36 per share
NO
63.5%
$0.64 per share
Volume
$8.5M
Liquidity
$187,606
24h Trades
0
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
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View Full Flow DashboardYES: 37% | NO: 64%
$8.5M total volume
Neutral - balanced flow
Dec 31, 2026
This prediction market aggregates information from an estimated 170,389 trades. The current price of 37¢ implies a 37% probability of this outcome occurring. Trading activity has been primarily retail-sized.
High Volume: With $8.5M traded, this is one of the most actively traded markets. Higher volume typically means more accurate price discovery.
Buy YES if you believe this will happen. At the current price of $0.36, you'd receive $1.00 if correct—a potential 174% return.
Buy NO if you believe it won't happen. At $0.64, you'd receive $1.00 if correct—a potential 57% return.
Share prices reflect the market's probability estimate. If you think the true probability differs from 37%, there may be a trading opportunity.