YES
17.5%
$0.17 per share
NO
82.5%
$0.82 per share
Volume
$40.5M
Liquidity
$318,773
24h Trades
0
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
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View Full Flow DashboardYES: 18% | NO: 83%
$40.5M total volume
Neutral - balanced flow
Dec 31, 2026
This prediction market aggregates information from an estimated 810,997 trades. The current price of 18¢ implies a 18% probability of this outcome occurring. Trading activity has been primarily retail-sized.
High Volume: With $40.5M traded, this is one of the most actively traded markets. Higher volume typically means more accurate price discovery.
Buy YES if you believe this will happen. At the current price of $0.17, you'd receive $1.00 if correct—a potential 471% return.
Buy NO if you believe it won't happen. At $0.82, you'd receive $1.00 if correct—a potential 21% return.
Share prices reflect the market's probability estimate. If you think the true probability differs from 18%, there may be a trading opportunity.