YES
50.0%
$0.50 per share
NO
100.0%
$1.00 per share
Volume
$1.9M
Liquidity
$0
24h Trades
This market will resolve according to the next date (ET) the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and February 28, 2026, (ET). If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If no strike could be verified under the prior rule by 48 hours after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No strike by February 28," regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile, this will qualify). Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
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View Full Flow DashboardYES: 50% | NO: 100%
$1.9M total volume
Neutral - balanced flow
Feb 28, 2026
This prediction market aggregates information from an estimated 37,233 trades. The current price of 50¢ implies a 50% probability of this outcome occurring. Trading activity has been primarily retail-sized.
High Volume: With $1.9M traded, this is one of the most actively traded markets. Higher volume typically means more accurate price discovery.
Resolution Soon: This market ends in 2 days. Odds often become more volatile as resolution approaches when new information emerges.
Buy YES if you believe this will happen. At the current price of $0.50, you'd receive $1.00 if correct—a potential 100% return.
Buy NO if you believe it won't happen. At $1.00, you'd receive $1.00 if correct—a potential 0% return.
Share prices reflect the market's probability estimate. If you think the true probability differs from 50%, there may be a trading opportunity.