YES
5.1%
$0.05 per share
NO
94.8%
$0.95 per share
Volume
$503,235
Liquidity
$45,982
24h Trades
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
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View Full Flow DashboardYES: 5% | NO: 95%
$503,235 total volume
Neutral - balanced flow
Dec 31, 2026
This prediction market aggregates information from an estimated 10,064 trades. The current price of 5¢ implies a 5% probability of this outcome occurring. Trading activity has been primarily retail-sized.
Buy YES if you believe this will happen. At the current price of $0.05, you'd receive $1.00 if correct—a potential 1842% return.
Buy NO if you believe it won't happen. At $0.95, you'd receive $1.00 if correct—a potential 5% return.
Share prices reflect the market's probability estimate. If you think the true probability differs from 5%, there may be a trading opportunity.