All Outcomes
128 candidates1Gavin Newsom
26.4%
2Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
9.7%
3Kamala Harris
6.2%
4Jon Ossoff
4.2%
5Josh Shapiro
4.1%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
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View Full Flow DashboardYES: 26% | NO: 74%
$718.4M total volume
Neutral - balanced flow
Nov 7, 2028
This political prediction market reflects real-money positions from traders worldwide. Unlike traditional polls that can suffer from sampling bias, prediction markets aggregate diverse opinions weighted by conviction—traders put real money behind their forecasts. The current 26% probability has been shaped by $718.4M in trading activity.
High Volume: With $718.4M traded, this is one of the most actively traded markets. Higher volume typically means more accurate price discovery.
This is a multi-outcome market with 128 possible outcomes. Each outcome has its own YES/NO market where you can bet on whether that specific candidate/option will win.
Example: If you think Gavin Newsom will win, you can buy YES shares at 26.4¢. If correct, you receive $1.00—a potential 280% return.
Alternatively, if you believe a leading candidate is overvalued, you can buy NO shares on their market to profit if they don't win.