This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 14 12:00 PM ET to April 21, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
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View Full Flow DashboardYES: 24% | NO: 77%
$1.2M total volume
Neutral - balanced flow
Apr 21, 2026
This prediction market aggregates information from an estimated 24,409 trades. The current price of 24¢ implies a 24% probability of this outcome occurring. Trading activity has been primarily retail-sized.
High Volume: With $1.2M traded, this is one of the most actively traded markets. Higher volume typically means more accurate price discovery.
Approaching Resolution: With 9 days until resolution, traders are watching closely for any news that could shift the odds.
This is a multi-outcome market with 30 possible outcomes. Each outcome has its own YES/NO market where you can bet on whether that specific candidate/option will win.
Example: If you think Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 14 to Apr will win, you can buy YES shares at 23.5¢. If correct, you receive $1.00—a potential 326% return.
Alternatively, if you believe a leading candidate is overvalued, you can buy NO shares on their market to profit if they don't win.