This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from February 27 12:00 PM ET to March 6, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Get real-time flow alerts for whale trades and price movements.
View Full Flow DashboardYES: 16% | NO: 85%
$28.1M total volume
Neutral - balanced flow
Mar 6, 2026
This prediction market aggregates information from an estimated 561,276 trades. The current price of 16¢ implies a 16% probability of this outcome occurring. Trading activity has been primarily retail-sized.
High Volume: With $28.1M traded, this is one of the most actively traded markets. Higher volume typically means more accurate price discovery.
Approaching Resolution: With 7 days until resolution, traders are watching closely for any news that could shift the odds.
This is a multi-outcome market with 30 possible outcomes. Each outcome has its own YES/NO market where you can bet on whether that specific candidate/option will win.
Example: If you think Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from February 27 to will win, you can buy YES shares at 15.5¢. If correct, you receive $1.00—a potential 545% return.
Alternatively, if you believe a leading candidate is overvalued, you can buy NO shares on their market to profit if they don't win.