All Outcomes
4 candidates1there
97.4%
2the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after th
1.6%
3the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after t
0.5%
4the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after t
0.5%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's March 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for March 17 - 18, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their March meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
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View Full Flow DashboardYES: 97% | NO: 3%
$174.1M total volume
Neutral - balanced flow
Mar 18, 2026
This prediction market aggregates information from an estimated 3,481,005 trades. The current price of 97¢ implies a 97% probability of this outcome occurring. Trading activity has been primarily retail-sized.
High Volume: With $174.1M traded, this is one of the most actively traded markets. Higher volume typically means more accurate price discovery.
This is a multi-outcome market with 4 possible outcomes. Each outcome has its own YES/NO market where you can bet on whether that specific candidate/option will win.
Example: If you think there will win, you can buy YES shares at 97.4¢. If correct, you receive $1.00—a potential 3% return.
Alternatively, if you believe a leading candidate is overvalued, you can buy NO shares on their market to profit if they don't win.