All Outcomes
21 candidates1Hannah Spencer
69.0%
2Matt Goodwin – Reform
18.0%
3Angeliki Stogia - Labour
13.0%
4Andy Burnham – Labour
0.1%
5Bev Craig – Reform
0.1%
The Gorton and Denton parliamentary by-election is currently scheduled for February 26, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Gorton and Denton parliamentary by-election in Greater Manchester. If the election results are not clear by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". Any change in party affiliation will not affect the resolution of this market. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Manchester City Council (https://www.manchester.gov.uk/elections).
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View Full Flow DashboardYES: 69% | NO: 31%
$829,216 total volume
Neutral - balanced flow
Feb 26, 2026
This political prediction market reflects real-money positions from traders worldwide. Unlike traditional polls that can suffer from sampling bias, prediction markets aggregate diverse opinions weighted by conviction—traders put real money behind their forecasts. The current 69% probability has been shaped by $829,216 in trading activity.
This is a multi-outcome market with 21 possible outcomes. Each outcome has its own YES/NO market where you can bet on whether that specific candidate/option will win.
Example: If you think Hannah Spencer will win, you can buy YES shares at 69.0¢. If correct, you receive $1.00—a potential 45% return.
Alternatively, if you believe a leading candidate is overvalued, you can buy NO shares on their market to profit if they don't win.