All Outcomes
16 candidates1Israel strike 3 countries in 2026
36.0%
2Israel strike 4 countries in 2026
31.0%
3Israel strike 2 countries in 2026
13.5%
4Israel strike 5 countries in 2026
7.2%
5Israel strike 1 country in 2026
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent. Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
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View Full Flow DashboardYES: 36% | NO: 64%
$1.1M total volume
Neutral - balanced flow
Dec 31, 2026
This prediction market aggregates information from an estimated 22,085 trades. The current price of 36¢ implies a 36% probability of this outcome occurring. Trading activity has been primarily retail-sized.
High Volume: With $1.1M traded, this is one of the most actively traded markets. Higher volume typically means more accurate price discovery.
This is a multi-outcome market with 16 possible outcomes. Each outcome has its own YES/NO market where you can bet on whether that specific candidate/option will win.
Example: If you think Israel strike 3 countries in 2026 will win, you can buy YES shares at 36.0¢. If correct, you receive $1.00—a potential 178% return.
Alternatively, if you believe a leading candidate is overvalued, you can buy NO shares on their market to profit if they don't win.