All Outcomes
6 candidates1Internet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026
38.5%
2Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026
26.5%
3Internet Access restored in Iran by April 30, 2026
3.5%
Volume
$408,713
On February 28, 2026, a nationwide internet blackout began in Iran amid military engagement with the United States and Israel. This market will resolve to “Yes” if internet access in Iran is restored by the specified date, 11:59 PM UTC. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” For purposes of this market, internet access will be considered restored only if either of the following conditions is satisfied. 1. Internet access will be considered restored if there is a clear, broad, and unambiguous consensus of credible international reporting stating that general internet connectivity has been restored for a majority of people in Iran and across most common applications, and that such connectivity has been sustained for at least 24 consecutive hours. Reporting describing planned restorations, gradual easing, partial reconnection, access limited to specific regions, networks, user groups, or applications, or access restricted to filtered, throttled, or government-controlled networks will not qualify. The reporting must explicitly indicate that normal international internet access has materially resumed. 2. Alternatively, internet access will be considered restored only if both of the following requirements are met. - According to Cloudflare Radar data for Iran, total bytes transferred must recover to at least 50% of the maximum recorded value for six consecutive hourly data points in the Traffic trends → Bytes transferred (Total bytes) chart for the last 4 weeks. The relevant figures for each hourly data point are listed in this chart as “__% of Max”. Only the first of the six consecutive qualifying hourly data points must occur before the market’s resolution time. If necessary to confirm the full sequence, the market will remain open until all qualifying data points are observed. - In addition, NetBlocks must report that the Iranian national internet outage has been resolved, or must publish a clearly equivalent statement indicating that internet access has been restored for the majority of people and across applications. Reports describing only limited, partial, or localized connectivity; connectivity restricted to filtered or government-controlled networks; traffic increases that NetBlocks characterizes as attempts to generate a false or misleading narrative of restored connectivity, or similar reports, will not qualify, even if the Cloudflare threshold is met. The primary resolution sources for this market will be Cloudflare Radar (https://radar.cloudflare.com/traffic/ir?dateRange=28d) data for Iran and public reporting from NetBlocks (https://netblocks.org/); however, a consensus of credible international reporting meeting the standards described above may also be used.
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View Full Flow DashboardYES: 39% | NO: 62%
$408,713 total volume
Neutral - balanced flow
Apr 30, 2026
This prediction market aggregates information from an estimated 8,174 trades. The current price of 39¢ implies a 39% probability of this outcome occurring. Trading activity has been primarily retail-sized.
Resolution Soon: This market ends in 6 days. Odds often become more volatile as resolution approaches when new information emerges.
This is a multi-outcome market with 6 possible outcomes. Each outcome has its own YES/NO market where you can bet on whether that specific candidate/option will win.
Example: If you think Internet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026 will win, you can buy YES shares at 38.5¢. If correct, you receive $1.00—a potential 160% return.
Alternatively, if you believe a leading candidate is overvalued, you can buy NO shares on their market to profit if they don't win.