This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed. A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions. Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count. Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
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View Full Flow DashboardYES: 94% | NO: 6%
$36.1M total volume
Neutral - balanced flow
Mar 31, 2026
Sports prediction markets often incorporate real-time information faster than traditional betting lines. This market has attracted $36.1M in trading volume. The 94% probability reflects the current market consensus based on all available information.
High Volume: With $36.1M traded, this is one of the most actively traded markets. Higher volume typically means more accurate price discovery.
This is a multi-outcome market with 9 possible outcomes. Each outcome has its own YES/NO market where you can bet on whether that specific candidate/option will win.
Example: If you think Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31 will win, you can buy YES shares at 94.0¢. If correct, you receive $1.00—a potential 6% return.
Alternatively, if you believe a leading candidate is overvalued, you can buy NO shares on their market to profit if they don't win.