All Outcomes
3 candidates1Nuclear weapon detonation by December 31
16.5%
2Nuclear weapon detonation by June 30
12.0%
3Nuclear weapon detonation by March 31
4.2%
Volume
$358,285
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a nuclear weapon is detonated anywhere in the world between November 5, 2025 ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market's resolution, any detonation of a nuclear weapon anywhere on the planet Earth or in space will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution. This includes offensive usages, nuclear tests, and accidental detonations. Use/launch of a nuclear weapon that fails to detonate, a fake weapon that never detonates, or a dirty bomb that distributes radioactive material by means of a conventional explosion are not sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution of this market. Only a successful nuclear detonation will result in a "Yes" resolution. This market may resolve to "Yes" as soon as a nuclear detonation is confirmed by a preponderance of credible reporting. For the purpose of this market's resolution, determination as to whether a detonation was nuclear will be made by a preponderance of credible reporting.
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View Full Flow DashboardYES: 17% | NO: 84%
$358,285 total volume
Neutral - balanced flow
Dec 31, 2026
This prediction market aggregates information from an estimated 7,165 trades. The current price of 17¢ implies a 17% probability of this outcome occurring. Trading activity has been primarily retail-sized.
This is a multi-outcome market with 3 possible outcomes. Each outcome has its own YES/NO market where you can bet on whether that specific candidate/option will win.
Example: If you think Nuclear weapon detonation by December 31 will win, you can buy YES shares at 16.5¢. If correct, you receive $1.00—a potential 506% return.
Alternatively, if you believe a leading candidate is overvalued, you can buy NO shares on their market to profit if they don't win.