All Outcomes
65 candidates1US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026
74.5%
2US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026
68.5%
3US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026
59.5%
4US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026
43.5%
5US strikes Iran by March 14, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between the time of this market's creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
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View Full Flow DashboardYES: 75% | NO: 26%
$424.8M total volume
Neutral - balanced flow
Jun 30, 2026
This prediction market aggregates information from an estimated 8,495,770 trades. The current price of 75¢ implies a 75% probability of this outcome occurring. Trading activity has been primarily retail-sized.
High Volume: With $424.8M traded, this is one of the most actively traded markets. Higher volume typically means more accurate price discovery.
This is a multi-outcome market with 65 possible outcomes. Each outcome has its own YES/NO market where you can bet on whether that specific candidate/option will win.
Example: If you think US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026 will win, you can buy YES shares at 74.5¢. If correct, you receive $1.00—a potential 34% return.
Alternatively, if you believe a leading candidate is overvalued, you can buy NO shares on their market to profit if they don't win.