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© 2026 Insider Trade Flow. Not financial advice. All data sourced from public SEC filings, 13F reports, and Polymarket.
Polymarket/Oil

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and September 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for September 30, 2026, however, will not be considered. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Ends Sep 30, 2026Oil
YES
6.5%
$0.07 per share
NO
93.5%
$0.94 per share
Volume
$5.5M
Liquidity
$648,884
24h Trades
0
Whale Trades
0

24h Flow Analysis

Buy Flow: $0Sell Flow: $0
Flow Imbalance0.0%
⚖️ Neutral flow - balanced buying and selling

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Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds?

YES: 7% | NO: 94%

How much volume has been traded?

$5.5M total volume

What is the market sentiment?

Neutral - balanced flow

When does this market end?

Sep 30, 2026

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What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in August 2026?
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View all Oil markets →

About This Market

Technology prediction markets track industry developments and product launches. This market has $5.5M in trading volume with $648,884 in liquidity. The 7% probability reflects trader expectations based on available information.

What's Driving the Odds

High Volume: With $5.5M traded, this is one of the most actively traded markets. Higher volume typically means more accurate price discovery.

How to Trade This Market

Buy YES if you believe this will happen. At the current price of $0.07, you'd receive $1.00 if correct—a potential 1438% return.

Buy NO if you believe it won't happen. At $0.94, you'd receive $1.00 if correct—a potential 7% return.

Share prices reflect the market's probability estimate. If you think the true probability differs from 7%, there may be a trading opportunity.