All Outcomes
8 candidates1Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by Decembe
18.5%
2Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by Septemb
11.5%
Volume
$5.5M
Liquidity
$98,256
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730 , including both the chart and downloadable files.
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View Full Flow DashboardYES: 19% | NO: 82%
$5.5M total volume
Neutral - balanced flow
Jun 30, 2026
This political prediction market reflects real-money positions from traders worldwide. Unlike traditional polls that can suffer from sampling bias, prediction markets aggregate diverse opinions weighted by conviction—traders put real money behind their forecasts. The current 19% probability has been shaped by $5.5M in trading activity.
High Volume: With $5.5M traded, this is one of the most actively traded markets. Higher volume typically means more accurate price discovery.
This is a multi-outcome market with 8 possible outcomes. Each outcome has its own YES/NO market where you can bet on whether that specific candidate/option will win.
Example: If you think Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by Decembe will win, you can buy YES shares at 18.5¢. If correct, you receive $1.00—a potential 441% return.
Alternatively, if you believe a leading candidate is overvalued, you can buy NO shares on their market to profit if they don't win.