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Polymarket/Markets/Politics

Politics Prediction Markets

Elections, government, and political events. Track real-time odds, whale trades, and smart money activity across 57 active markets.

Markets
57
Total Volume
$4.4B
Liquidity
$263.7M
Avg. YES
34%

Top Politics Markets

Sorted by volume
1

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

128 outcomesVol: $1.3B·Ends: Nov 7, 2028
21%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
2

Presidential Election Winner 2028

128 outcomes

About Politics Prediction Markets

Politics prediction markets on Polymarket allow traders to speculate on the outcomes of politics events using real money. With 57 active markets and $4.4B in total trading volume, the politics category is one of the most active on the platform.

Each market consists of YES and NO shares that trade between $0.01 and $0.99. The price represents the market's collective probability estimate for the event occurring. For example, a YES price of $0.75 indicates a 75% probability according to market participants.

Insider Trade Flow tracks whale activity (trades over $10,000) and smart money flow across all politics markets, helping traders identify where large investors are positioning themselves.

Vol: $692.7M
·
Ends: Nov 7, 2028
23%
JD Vance
3

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

128 outcomesVol: $691.6M·Ends: Nov 7, 2028
49%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
4

Next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?

33 outcomesVol: $284.6M·Ends: Jun 1, 2026
98%
Abiy Ahmed
5

Brazil Presidential Election

32 outcomesVol: $133.0M·Ends: Oct 4, 2026
63%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
6

Netanyahu out by...?

6 outcomesVol: $124.1M·Ends: Jan 1, 2027
50%
December 31
7

Next French Presidential Election

128 outcomesVol: $121.9M·Ends: Apr 30, 2027
33%
Marine Le Pen
8

Venezuela leader end of 2026?

57 outcomesVol: $95.8M·Ends: Dec 31, 2026
86%
Nicolás Maduro
9

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

10 outcomesVol: $71.6M·Ends: Jan 1, 2027
7%
December 31
10

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?

6 outcomesVol: $65.7M·Ends: Jan 1, 2027
4%
the US confirm that aliens exist
11

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Vol: $60.0M·Ends: Dec 31, 2026
16%
YES
12

Fed Decision in September?

5 outcomesVol: $52.5M·Ends: Sep 16, 2026
68%
there
13

California Governor Election Winner

45 outcomesVol: $40.8M·Ends: Nov 3, 2026
95%
Xavier
14

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Vol: $40.2M·Ends: Dec 31, 2026
4%
YES
15

Iran leader end of 2026?

123 outcomesVol: $38.8M·Ends: Dec 31, 2026
82%
Mojtaba Khamenei
16

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

Vol: $35.4M·Ends: Dec 31, 2026
4%
YES
17

Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

28 outcomesVol: $33.1M·Ends: Dec 31, 2026
55%
Gadi Eizenkot
18

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?

8 outcomesVol: $29.2M·Ends: Jan 1, 2027
6%
December 31
19

Israel closes its airspace by...?

19 outcomesVol: $27.4M·Ends: Oct 1, 2026
7%
September 30
20

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?

22 outcomesVol: $26.3M·Ends: Aug 31, 2026
100%
July 18
21

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Vol: $25.2M·Ends: Dec 31, 2026
8%
YES
22

Iran leadership change by...?

14 outcomesVol: $24.1M·Ends: Jul 1, 2027
25%
June 30, 2027
23

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by...?

2 outcomesVol: $23.6M·Ends: Sep 1, 2026
0%
August 31
24

Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026

71 outcomesVol: $23.5M·Ends: Oct 10, 2026
9%
Yulia Navalnaya
25

Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?

34 outcomesVol: $22.3M·Ends: Sep 20, 2026
72%
United Russia (ER)
26

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?

7 outcomesVol: $21.8M·Ends: Jan 1, 2027
5%
December 31
27

Putin out as President of Russia by...?

5 outcomesVol: $21.7M·Ends: Jul 1, 2027
14%
June 30, 2027
28

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

20 outcomesVol: $21.0M·Ends: Jan 1, 2027
76%
December 31
29

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?

7 outcomesVol: $17.8M·Ends: Jan 1, 2027
8%
December 31
30

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?

9 outcomesVol: $16.4M·Ends: Jan 1, 2027
14%
December 31
31

Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?

4 outcomesVol: $14.2M·Ends: Mar 31, 2026
4%
December 31
32

Los Angeles Mayoral Election

15 outcomesVol: $13.5M·Ends: Dec 31, 2026
65%
Karen Bass
33

Xi Jinping out before 2027?

Vol: $12.7M·Ends: Dec 31, 2026
5%
YES
34

Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?

Vol: $11.7M·Ends: Dec 31, 2026
3%
YES
35

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

12 outcomesVol: $11.3M·Ends: Jan 1, 2027
18%
December 31
36

Trump out as President before 2027?

Vol: $11.1M·Ends: Dec 31, 2026
7%
YES
37

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

Vol: $11.0M·Ends: Jan 1, 2027
14%
YES
38

Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?

Vol: $10.6M·Ends: Dec 31, 2026
7%
YES
39

Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms

5 outcomesVol: $10.4M·Ends: Nov 3, 2026
49%
Democrats Sweep
40

Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?

11 outcomesVol: $10.3M·Ends: Apr 1, 2027
68%
March 31, 2027
41

Which party will win the House in 2026?

9 outcomesVol: $9.7M·Ends: Nov 3, 2026
88%
Democratic Party
42

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Vol: $9.5M·Ends: Dec 31, 2026
38%
YES
43

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?

7 outcomesVol: $8.4M·Ends: Jan 1, 2027
10%
December 31
44

Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?

3 outcomesVol: $7.8M·Ends: Jan 1, 2027
4%
December 31
45

How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?

16 outcomesVol: $7.4M·Ends: Dec 31, 2026
77%
4
46

US military action against Cuba by...?

3 outcomesVol: $7.3M·Ends: Jan 1, 2027
17%
December 31
47

Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?

15 outcomesVol: $6.9M·Ends: Jan 1, 2027
24%
December 31
48

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

15 outcomesVol: $6.8M·Ends: Dec 9, 2026
43%
the upper bound of the target federal funds rate
49

María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...?

13 outcomesVol: $6.4M·Ends: Jan 1, 2027
28%
December 31
50

Will US withdraw from NATO by...?

4 outcomesVol: $6.3M·Ends: Jan 1, 2027
3%
US withdraw from NATO

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FAQ

How many politics markets are available?

There are currently 57 active politics markets on Polymarket.

What's the total volume?

$4.4B has been traded across all politics markets.

How are markets ranked?

Markets are ranked by total trading volume, showing the most actively traded markets first.