Insider
SEC Form 4
Polymarket
Log inSign up
Insider

Smart money intelligence platform. Track insider trading, institutional flows, and prediction markets.

Products

SEC Form 4Polymarket

Learn

GlossaryBlogDirectoryLeaderboards

Legal

Terms of ServicePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer
© 2026 Insider Trade Flow. Not financial advice. All data sourced from public SEC filings, 13F reports, and Polymarket.
Polymarket/Politics

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Ends Dec 31, 2026Politics
YES
3.8%
$0.04 per share
NO
96.3%
$0.96 per share
Volume
$38.3M
Liquidity
$781,580
24h Trades
0
Whale Trades
0

24h Flow Analysis

Buy Flow: $0Sell Flow: $0
Flow Imbalance0.0%
⚖️ Neutral flow - balanced buying and selling

Track This Market

Get real-time flow alerts for whale trades and price movements.

View Full Flow Dashboard

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds?

YES: 4% | NO: 96%

How much volume has been traded?

$38.3M total volume

What is the market sentiment?

Neutral - balanced flow

When does this market end?

Dec 31, 2026

Related Politics Markets

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
19% YES$1.2B
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
49% YES$671.6M
Presidential Election Winner 2028
20% YES$655.4M
Next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?
97% YES$177.4M
Netanyahu out by...?
38% YES$123.5M
View all Politics markets →

About This Market

This political prediction market reflects real-money positions from traders worldwide. Unlike traditional polls that can suffer from sampling bias, prediction markets aggregate diverse opinions weighted by conviction—traders put real money behind their forecasts. The current 4% probability has been shaped by $38.3M in trading activity.

What's Driving the Odds

High Volume: With $38.3M traded, this is one of the most actively traded markets. Higher volume typically means more accurate price discovery.

How to Trade This Market

Buy YES if you believe this will happen. At the current price of $0.04, you'd receive $1.00 if correct—a potential 2567% return.

Buy NO if you believe it won't happen. At $0.96, you'd receive $1.00 if correct—a potential 4% return.

Share prices reflect the market's probability estimate. If you think the true probability differs from 4%, there may be a trading opportunity.