YES
3.8%
$0.04 per share
NO
96.3%
$0.96 per share
Volume
$38.3M
Liquidity
$781,580
24h Trades
0
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
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View Full Flow DashboardYES: 4% | NO: 96%
$38.3M total volume
Neutral - balanced flow
Dec 31, 2026
This political prediction market reflects real-money positions from traders worldwide. Unlike traditional polls that can suffer from sampling bias, prediction markets aggregate diverse opinions weighted by conviction—traders put real money behind their forecasts. The current 4% probability has been shaped by $38.3M in trading activity.
High Volume: With $38.3M traded, this is one of the most actively traded markets. Higher volume typically means more accurate price discovery.
Buy YES if you believe this will happen. At the current price of $0.04, you'd receive $1.00 if correct—a potential 2567% return.
Buy NO if you believe it won't happen. At $0.96, you'd receive $1.00 if correct—a potential 4% return.
Share prices reflect the market's probability estimate. If you think the true probability differs from 4%, there may be a trading opportunity.