This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield. Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution. Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia. The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Get real-time flow alerts for whale trades and price movements.
View Full Flow DashboardYES: 2% | NO: 98%
$1.2M total volume
Neutral - balanced flow
Mar 31, 2026
This prediction market aggregates information from an estimated 23,407 trades. The current price of 2¢ implies a 2% probability of this outcome occurring. Trading activity has been primarily retail-sized.
High Volume: With $1.2M traded, this is one of the most actively traded markets. Higher volume typically means more accurate price discovery.
This is a multi-outcome market with 3 possible outcomes. Each outcome has its own YES/NO market where you can bet on whether that specific candidate/option will win.
Example: If you think Russia test a nuclear weapon by March 31 2026 will win, you can buy YES shares at 1.6¢. If correct, you receive $1.00—a potential 6352% return.
Alternatively, if you believe a leading candidate is overvalued, you can buy NO shares on their market to profit if they don't win.