All Outcomes
10 candidates1Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by De
7.0%
2Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by Se
1.9%
3Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by Au
0.5%
Volume
$71.6M
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kharg Island is no longer under Iranian control by March 31, 2026 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". “No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Kharg Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island. Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established. If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island. If control over Kharg Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
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View Full Flow DashboardYES: 7% | NO: 93%
$71.6M total volume
Neutral - balanced flow
Jan 1, 2027
This prediction market aggregates information from an estimated 1,432,121 trades. The current price of 7¢ implies a 7% probability of this outcome occurring. Trading activity has been primarily retail-sized.
High Volume: With $71.6M traded, this is one of the most actively traded markets. Higher volume typically means more accurate price discovery.
This is a multi-outcome market with 10 possible outcomes. Each outcome has its own YES/NO market where you can bet on whether that specific candidate/option will win.
Example: If you think Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by De will win, you can buy YES shares at 7.0¢. If correct, you receive $1.00—a potential 1329% return.
Alternatively, if you believe a leading candidate is overvalued, you can buy NO shares on their market to profit if they don't win.