All Outcomes
9 candidates1Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027
25.5%
2Iran leadership change by December 31
17.5%
3Iran leadership change by September 30
8.5%
4Iran leadership change by July 31
3.1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
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View Full Flow DashboardYES: 26% | NO: 75%
$19.4M total volume
Neutral - balanced flow
Dec 31, 2026
This political prediction market reflects real-money positions from traders worldwide. Unlike traditional polls that can suffer from sampling bias, prediction markets aggregate diverse opinions weighted by conviction—traders put real money behind their forecasts. The current 26% probability has been shaped by $19.4M in trading activity.
High Volume: With $19.4M traded, this is one of the most actively traded markets. Higher volume typically means more accurate price discovery.
This is a multi-outcome market with 9 possible outcomes. Each outcome has its own YES/NO market where you can bet on whether that specific candidate/option will win.
Example: If you think Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027 will win, you can buy YES shares at 25.5¢. If correct, you receive $1.00—a potential 292% return.
Alternatively, if you believe a leading candidate is overvalued, you can buy NO shares on their market to profit if they don't win.