All Outcomes
6 candidates1Iran leadership change by December 31
38.5%
2Iran leadership change by June 30
32.5%
3Iran leadership change by May 31
24.5%
4Iran leadership change by April 30
14.0%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
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View Full Flow DashboardYES: 39% | NO: 62%
$8.6M total volume
Neutral - balanced flow
Dec 31, 2026
This prediction market aggregates information from an estimated 172,004 trades. The current price of 39¢ implies a 39% probability of this outcome occurring. Trading activity has been primarily retail-sized.
High Volume: With $8.6M traded, this is one of the most actively traded markets. Higher volume typically means more accurate price discovery.
This is a multi-outcome market with 6 possible outcomes. Each outcome has its own YES/NO market where you can bet on whether that specific candidate/option will win.
Example: If you think Iran leadership change by December 31 will win, you can buy YES shares at 38.5¢. If correct, you receive $1.00—a potential 160% return.
Alternatively, if you believe a leading candidate is overvalued, you can buy NO shares on their market to profit if they don't win.