This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
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View Full Flow DashboardYES: 35% | NO: 66%
$8.5M total volume
Neutral - balanced flow
Jan 1, 2027
This prediction market aggregates information from an estimated 170,222 trades. The current price of 35¢ implies a 35% probability of this outcome occurring. Trading activity has been primarily retail-sized.
High Volume: With $8.5M traded, this is one of the most actively traded markets. Higher volume typically means more accurate price discovery.
This is a multi-outcome market with 10 possible outcomes. Each outcome has its own YES/NO market where you can bet on whether that specific candidate/option will win.
Example: If you think Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2027 will win, you can buy YES shares at 34.5¢. If correct, you receive $1.00—a potential 190% return.
Alternatively, if you believe a leading candidate is overvalued, you can buy NO shares on their market to profit if they don't win.