All Outcomes
4 candidates1the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026
5.5%
Volume
$14.2M
Liquidity
$52,855
24h Trades
0
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between September 6 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the United States as of September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
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View Full Flow DashboardYES: 6% | NO: 95%
$14.2M total volume
Neutral - balanced flow
Mar 31, 2026
This political prediction market reflects real-money positions from traders worldwide. Unlike traditional polls that can suffer from sampling bias, prediction markets aggregate diverse opinions weighted by conviction—traders put real money behind their forecasts. The current 6% probability has been shaped by $14.2M in trading activity.
High Volume: With $14.2M traded, this is one of the most actively traded markets. Higher volume typically means more accurate price discovery.
This is a multi-outcome market with 4 possible outcomes. Each outcome has its own YES/NO market where you can bet on whether that specific candidate/option will win.
Example: If you think the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026 will win, you can buy YES shares at 5.5¢. If correct, you receive $1.00—a potential 1718% return.
Alternatively, if you believe a leading candidate is overvalued, you can buy NO shares on their market to profit if they don't win.