All Outcomes
7 candidates1James Talarico and Ken Paxton
60.0%
2James Talarico and John Cornyn
36.5%
3Jasmine Crockett and John Cornyn
0.4%
4two candidates other than the listed pairs
0.4%
5Jasmine Crockett and Ken Paxton
The 2026 United States Senate election in Texas is scheduled for November 3, 2026, to elect one member of the United States Senate to represent Texas. Party primary elections will be held on March 3, 2026, with runoff elections on May 26, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority in the primary. This market will resolve based on the candidates who win the 2026 Democratic and Republican primary elections for United States Senator from Texas, including any required runoff elections. This market may resolve as soon as the results of both parties' primaries are known definitively. If, for any reason, a candidate other than the primary election winner later becomes the official nominee, this will not affect this market’s resolution. If a different combination of candidates than those listed wins the respective primaries, or if the results of the election aren’t known by November 30, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to “Other.” The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Texas Republican Party and the Texas Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Get real-time flow alerts for whale trades and price movements.
View Full Flow DashboardYES: 60% | NO: 40%
$658,366 total volume
Neutral - balanced flow
Mar 3, 2026
This political prediction market reflects real-money positions from traders worldwide. Unlike traditional polls that can suffer from sampling bias, prediction markets aggregate diverse opinions weighted by conviction—traders put real money behind their forecasts. The current 60% probability has been shaped by $658,366 in trading activity.
This is a multi-outcome market with 7 possible outcomes. Each outcome has its own YES/NO market where you can bet on whether that specific candidate/option will win.
Example: If you think James Talarico and Ken Paxton will win, you can buy YES shares at 60.0¢. If correct, you receive $1.00—a potential 67% return.
Alternatively, if you believe a leading candidate is overvalued, you can buy NO shares on their market to profit if they don't win.