This market will resolve to “Yes” if both Denmark and the United States sign a deal, treaty, or similar international agreement of any kind relating to Greenland by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Any U.S.–Danish agreement relating to Greenland will qualify, regardless of subject matter, including but not limited to sovereignty, governance, security arrangements, or access to natural resources. Examples of qualifying deals include but are not limited to a treaty that makes any portion of Greenland a U.S. territory or possession (even if the handover date for such territory or possession is later); or, a Guantánamo-style arrangement treaty establishing a defined zone in Greenland under exclusive or primary U.S. jurisdiction and control, where Denmark and Greenland’s ordinary legal authority does not apply except by U.S. permission; or agreements permitting additional U.S. troop stationing, basing access, or resource extraction rights in Greenland. This market will resolve to “Yes” only if a qualifying agreement is formally signed by authorized representatives of both Denmark and the United States. Official announcements, statements of intent, or declarations that an agreement has been reached will not suffice unless accompanied by signatures from both sides. Whether or not a qualifying deal is later passed by the respective parliaments or enters into force will not affect this market’s resolution. Signaling from Greenland’s population will not be considered. Announcements, negotiations, proposals, frameworks, or understandings that are not formally signed by both parties will not qualify. Any qualifying U.S. jurisdiction, control, basing rights, or access arrangements in Greenland that existed at market creation will not count as new qualifying agreements. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Denmark; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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View Full Flow DashboardYES: 4% | NO: 96%
$937,156 total volume
Neutral - balanced flow
Mar 31, 2026
This prediction market aggregates information from an estimated 18,743 trades. The current price of 4¢ implies a 4% probability of this outcome occurring. Trading activity has been primarily retail-sized.
Buy YES if you believe this will happen. At the current price of $0.04, you'd receive $1.00 if correct—a potential 2253% return.
Buy NO if you believe it won't happen. At $0.96, you'd receive $1.00 if correct—a potential 4% return.
Share prices reflect the market's probability estimate. If you think the true probability differs from 4%, there may be a trading opportunity.