All Outcomes
5 candidates1Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire
24.0%
2Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire
8.5%
3Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire
0.5%
Volume
$1.4M
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ukraine officially agrees to a peace framework to end the Russo–Ukrainian war that the United States has formally endorsed by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying peace framework is any publicly announced plan, roadmap, or framework intended as the basis for ending the war, provided that the United States formally endorses it and Ukraine officially agrees to it through one of the following: 1. A written or signed framework-related instrument issued or signed by Ukraine that affirms agreement with the U.S.-endorsed framework. 2. An official U.S.–Ukraine announcement — defined as an official government-issued declaration, such as a joint statement, communiqué, or coordinated official releases, explicitly stating that Ukraine has agreed to a U.S.-endorsed peace framework. The announcement must be issued through authorized government channels, including official written releases or formally published transcripts by the White House, State Department, Office of the President of Ukraine, Cabinet of Ministers, or Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Verbal (including interviews or remarks during bilateral meetings) and social-media claims by either leader will not qualify unless later issued in an official written or published form by the respective government. The U.S. President or any US government official publicly stating that “an agreement has been reached,” without a corresponding formal release or communiqué, will not qualify; the same applies to statements by the Ukrainian President or Ukrainian officials. 3. A formally issued Ukrainian governmental action — including a presidential decree, Cabinet resolution, or National Security and Defense Council decision — explicitly stating that Ukraine agrees to the U.S.-endorsed framework. The primary resolution source will be official government documents, statements, decrees, and credible reporting confirming that Ukraine officially agreed to a U.S.-endorsed peace framework under the standards above.
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View Full Flow DashboardYES: 24% | NO: 76%
$1.4M total volume
Neutral - balanced flow
Jun 30, 2026
Technology prediction markets track industry developments and product launches. This market has $1.4M in trading volume with $21,261 in liquidity. The 24% probability reflects trader expectations based on available information.
High Volume: With $1.4M traded, this is one of the most actively traded markets. Higher volume typically means more accurate price discovery.
This is a multi-outcome market with 5 possible outcomes. Each outcome has its own YES/NO market where you can bet on whether that specific candidate/option will win.
Example: If you think Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire will win, you can buy YES shares at 24.0¢. If correct, you receive $1.00—a potential 317% return.
Alternatively, if you believe a leading candidate is overvalued, you can buy NO shares on their market to profit if they don't win.