This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States military or federal government officially announces that it will escort, is escorting, or has escorted, any commercial ship through the Strait of Hormuz by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. Escort refers to United States military or government personnel accompanying or actively providing protective overwatch for a specific commercial vessel or convoy during its transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Personnel do not need to be aboard the commercial vessel to qualify. Escort may occur from a separate naval vessel or from aerial assets assigned to accompany or protect the transit. A qualifying announcement must be definitive. Suggestions, unconfirmed reports, or other non-definitive statements will not count. A widespread consensus of credible reporting that United States military or government personnel have escorted at least one commercial vessel on a journey through the Strait of Hormuz will also be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government and military of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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View Full Flow DashboardYES: 27% | NO: 74%
$3.5M total volume
Neutral - balanced flow
Mar 31, 2026
This prediction market aggregates information from an estimated 70,675 trades. The current price of 27¢ implies a 27% probability of this outcome occurring. Trading activity has been primarily retail-sized.
High Volume: With $3.5M traded, this is one of the most actively traded markets. Higher volume typically means more accurate price discovery.
This is a multi-outcome market with 3 possible outcomes. Each outcome has its own YES/NO market where you can bet on whether that specific candidate/option will win.
Example: If you think US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April will win, you can buy YES shares at 26.5¢. If correct, you receive $1.00—a potential 277% return.
Alternatively, if you believe a leading candidate is overvalued, you can buy NO shares on their market to profit if they don't win.