All Outcomes
4 candidates1US forces enter Iran by December 31
33.0%
2US forces enter Iran by March 31
14.0%
3US forces enter Iran by February 28
1.9%
Volume
$1.1M
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count. US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count. Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
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View Full Flow DashboardYES: 33% | NO: 67%
$1.1M total volume
Neutral - balanced flow
Invalid Date
This prediction market aggregates information from an estimated 21,617 trades. The current price of 33¢ implies a 33% probability of this outcome occurring. Trading activity has been primarily retail-sized.
High Volume: With $1.1M traded, this is one of the most actively traded markets. Higher volume typically means more accurate price discovery.
This is a multi-outcome market with 4 possible outcomes. Each outcome has its own YES/NO market where you can bet on whether that specific candidate/option will win.
Example: If you think US forces enter Iran by December 31 will win, you can buy YES shares at 33.0¢. If correct, you receive $1.00—a potential 203% return.
Alternatively, if you believe a leading candidate is overvalued, you can buy NO shares on their market to profit if they don't win.