This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield. Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution. Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US. The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
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View Full Flow DashboardYES: 1% | NO: 99%
$391,488 total volume
Neutral - balanced flow
Mar 31, 2026
This prediction market aggregates information from an estimated 7,829 trades. The current price of 1¢ implies a 1% probability of this outcome occurring. Trading activity has been primarily retail-sized.
This is a multi-outcome market with 3 possible outcomes. Each outcome has its own YES/NO market where you can bet on whether that specific candidate/option will win.
Example: If you think the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by March 31 2026 will win, you can buy YES shares at 1.1¢. If correct, you receive $1.00—a potential 8596% return.
Alternatively, if you believe a leading candidate is overvalued, you can buy NO shares on their market to profit if they don't win.