All Outcomes
8 candidates1Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30
62.0%
2Russia enter Druzkhivka by June 30
28.5%
3Russia enter Sloviansk by June 30
23.0%
4Russia enter Kramatorsk by June 30
18.0%
5Russia enter Zaporizhia by June 30
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of [the specified city or settlement] () by June 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Territory will be considered captured if any part of the city or settlement is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
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View Full Flow DashboardYES: 62% | NO: 38%
$589,771 total volume
Neutral - balanced flow
Jun 30, 2026
This prediction market aggregates information from an estimated 11,795 trades. The current price of 62¢ implies a 62% probability of this outcome occurring. Trading activity has been primarily retail-sized.
This is a multi-outcome market with 8 possible outcomes. Each outcome has its own YES/NO market where you can bet on whether that specific candidate/option will win.
Example: If you think Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30 will win, you can buy YES shares at 62.0¢. If correct, you receive $1.00—a potential 61% return.
Alternatively, if you believe a leading candidate is overvalued, you can buy NO shares on their market to profit if they don't win.