All Outcomes
4 candidates1Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by April 30, 202
39.5%
2Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by March 31, 202
13.0%
3Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by February 28,
1.8%
Volume
$795,291
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Stepnohirsk, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, by January 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Stepnohirsk will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by January 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. The territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities such as "Prymorske" with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Once Russia captures the entirety of Stepnohirsk, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/CwF1b64Qo49PvUZw5 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
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View Full Flow DashboardYES: 40% | NO: 61%
$795,291 total volume
Neutral - balanced flow
Apr 30, 2026
This prediction market aggregates information from an estimated 15,905 trades. The current price of 40¢ implies a 40% probability of this outcome occurring. Trading activity has been primarily retail-sized.
This is a multi-outcome market with 4 possible outcomes. Each outcome has its own YES/NO market where you can bet on whether that specific candidate/option will win.
Example: If you think Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by April 30, 202 will win, you can buy YES shares at 39.5¢. If correct, you receive $1.00—a potential 153% return.
Alternatively, if you believe a leading candidate is overvalued, you can buy NO shares on their market to profit if they don't win.