This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Vovchansk by November 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Vovchansk will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by November 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. If the territory of municipality is shaded light grey, and is distinguished from bordering municipalities such as "Vovchanski Khutory" with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Once Russia captures Vovchansk, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Vovchansk Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Vovchansk.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/pEumzu6kdCPQ2sYt7 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap is rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
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View Full Flow DashboardYES: 18% | NO: 82%
$733,634 total volume
Neutral - balanced flow
Mar 31, 2026
This prediction market aggregates information from an estimated 14,672 trades. The current price of 18¢ implies a 18% probability of this outcome occurring. Trading activity has been primarily retail-sized.
This is a multi-outcome market with 3 possible outcomes. Each outcome has its own YES/NO market where you can bet on whether that specific candidate/option will win.
Example: If you think Russia capture all of Vovchansk by March 31 will win, you can buy YES shares at 18.0¢. If correct, you receive $1.00—a potential 456% return.
Alternatively, if you believe a leading candidate is overvalued, you can buy NO shares on their market to profit if they don't win.