This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Lyman railroad station located on Vulytsya Pryvokzalʹna by December 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET. The railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Train Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman+train+station+zoom.png Train Station Location in Lyman: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman+train+station.jpeg Lyman Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman.jpeg Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/zeVSXaeDH93mF2WPA The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
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View Full Flow DashboardYES: 86% | NO: 14%
$1.6M total volume
Neutral - balanced flow
Dec 31, 2026
This prediction market aggregates information from an estimated 32,396 trades. The current price of 86¢ implies a 86% probability of this outcome occurring. Trading activity has been primarily retail-sized.
High Volume: With $1.6M traded, this is one of the most actively traded markets. Higher volume typically means more accurate price discovery.
This is a multi-outcome market with 8 possible outcomes. Each outcome has its own YES/NO market where you can bet on whether that specific candidate/option will win.
Example: If you think Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026 will win, you can buy YES shares at 85.5¢. If correct, you receive $1.00—a potential 17% return.
Alternatively, if you believe a leading candidate is overvalued, you can buy NO shares on their market to profit if they don't win.