This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Donald Trump or an official representative of his administration (such as the White House Press Secretary, National Security Advisor, or Secretary of Defense) issues a formal public statement declaring that the United States is at war with Iran by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The statement must clearly and explicitly use language equivalent to a declaration of war—for example, stating that "the United States is now at war with Iran" or "we are declaring war on Iran." General statements about military action, retaliation, force, or operations will not qualify unless they include an unambiguous declaration of war. Executive orders or official memoranda may qualify only if they contain clear language declaring war. The primary resolution source will be official government communications, including White House press releases, presidential speeches, or public statements by senior administration officials; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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View Full Flow DashboardYES: 7% | NO: 93%
$799,250 total volume
Neutral - balanced flow
Mar 31, 2026
This prediction market aggregates information from an estimated 15,985 trades. The current price of 7¢ implies a 7% probability of this outcome occurring. Trading activity has been primarily retail-sized.
This is a multi-outcome market with 3 possible outcomes. Each outcome has its own YES/NO market where you can bet on whether that specific candidate/option will win.
Example: If you think Trump declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026 will win, you can buy YES shares at 7.1¢. If correct, you receive $1.00—a potential 1299% return.
Alternatively, if you believe a leading candidate is overvalued, you can buy NO shares on their market to profit if they don't win.